10th General Elections in
Malaysia -An analysis
It is now Malays vs Malays
The 10th General elections in Malaysia were held
on 29 Nov '99. Mahathir is back in power with more than two third majority. The
ruling coalition (Barisan Nasional) consisting of 14 parties, won 148 seats as compared
to162 in the last election. The opposition has almost doubled its tally by winning 45
seats.
| Barisan
Nasional |
1995 |
1999 |
Seats (192) |
Seats (193) |
UMNO - 94
Others - 68 |
UMNO -
72
MCA - 29
MIC - 7
Others - 40 |
162* (65%) |
148 (56%) |
Opposition |
Pas - 7
DAP - 9
Semangat 46 - 6
PBS - 8 |
Pas -
27
DAP - 10
Keadilan - 5
PBS - 3 |
|
30 (35%) |
45 (44%) |
Notes-: UMNO - United Malays National
Organisation
MCA - Malaysian Chinese Association
MIC - Malaysian Indian Congress
Pas - Parti Islam Se Malaysia
DAP - Democratic Action Party
PBS - Party Bersatu Sabah
The opposition front called Barisan Alternatif comprises Pas, DAP and
Keadilan (Justice) the new party led by Anwars's wife, and the Peoples Party of Malaysia.
The opposition front had entered into an electoral pact with the PBS - a local party in
the state of Sabah in East Malaysia.
* The National front eventually held 166 seats with some opposition MPs joining the front.
From the constitutional (legal) angle no one can deny that the
elections were held in a free and fair manner, not withstanding the official statement of
US State Department to the contrary. Pemantu, a grass roots election observers group
had received complaints of "phantom voters" in the electoral rolls and had made
an inference that there was a "systematic attempt to organize the voter
registration" to favour certain parties.
A team from the Asian Network for Free Election, including
foreign and local observers, headed by Thai General Saiyud Kerdhpol remarked that
"The election was done in a free manner but we do not know if it is fair or
not". This group also seems to have collected some evidence of "phantom
voters".
Despite these allegations, it could be said that by voting the ruling coalition to power,
the people of Malaysia have, by and large endorsed the policies of the Barisan Nasional
(BN) and the leadership of Dr. Mahathir Mohamad.
The opposition had a limited period of campaigning - just 8 days
this time, but this was the case in all previous elections. But what was unfair was
that the heavily controlled open media was not available to the opposition. The
media was also used to threaten people of a repetition of 1969 (racial riots) if the
opposition is voted to power.
By holding the elections in Nov '99 (more than 6 months early)
over 600,000 young Malaysians were deprived of their franchise as they would have
become legally eligible only in Jan 2000. At a rough estimate this amounts to more
than 5 % of the total electorate and their participation might have made an impact,
as a majority of the youth were anti-establishment, as evidenced by their active
participation in the demonstrations after Anwar's arrest.
There has been a major paradigm shift in the pattern of voting. In all previous
elections, UMNO the leading component of Barisan Nasional was seen as a true
representative of Malays and have been overwhelmingly voted to power in the Malay
heartland (Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah and Perlis). In this election UMNO secured
only 72 against 94 in the last elections. The BN was whitewashed in the State of
Terengganu, a stronghold of Malays, and secured only one seat in the state of
Kelantan. In the State elections, in addition to Kelantan which was already with
Pas, the State of Terengganu has come under the rule of the opposition.
It cannot be said that the sacking of Anwar or his subsequent ill
treatment at the hands of the police has had no impact on the electorate or the outcome of
the election. Firstly the election of Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, wife of Anwar Ibrahim
is itself an indication of sympathy of their home constituency. Secondly by aligning
her party Keadilan (Justice) with Pas (the fundamentalist muslim party) the sympathy votes
of the Malays got transferred to Pas making it the leading opposition party. By the
same token, the non-Malays (especially the Chinese) fearing the fundamentalists voted for
the ruling coalition (BN). For the first time in the Malyasian history, the
political equation has changed to Malays versus Malays in the country. This has
great implications for future Malaysian polity.
On the election results, the headline of the Malaysian newspaper
"Star", read "UMNO's worst fears come true." If this is
true one can expect the ruling coalition led by UMNO to make special efforts to bring back
the disillusioned Malays to their camp. This can be done either by resorting to some
Islamization policies or extending the affirmative action for Bhumiputras set to expire
shortly after 30 years of existence. Both these would cause serious apprehensions
among the minority communities on whose strength the BN has come to power in this
election. The Anwar factor will continue to have its impact in the party election
scheduled for next year. More dissenting voices can be heard in the party election.
The party is also without a deputy since the sacking of Anwar. The main contenders
are Ahmad Badawi the Dy. PM, Najib Tun Razak a vice president of the party and Tengku
Razeleigh Hamza. With the poll debacle in Kelantan, the chances of Tengku
Razeleigh Hamza coming back into the political hierarchy has become difficult (though
cannot be ruled out). This race is also going to decide the likely successor to Dr.
Mahathir.
It is too premature to assume that the country runs the risk of
becoming an Islamic State. If the Pas has been successful in a major way, it was
because of the Anwar factor and not because all the Malays approve the Pas ideology.
Pas has overtaken the Democratic Action Party (DAP) by becoming the major
opposition party. While referring to this development Lim Kit Siang , the former
opposition leader, said that the elections resulted in a "new bipolar parliament
where both poles of power or muslim-based"( Lim Kit Siang incidentally lost his seat
in the present election.)
In view of the split in the Malays, the ruling coalition may have
to be more supportive of the Chinese and other minorities who have stood by the National
Front in this election. The Chinese who have a major stake in the economy would like
to cash in on this development. The local business community and the foreign institutional
investors also seem to be happy with the outcome and there is a hope that the capital
controls may be rolled back.
The present election in many respects is a defining moment in
Malaysian politics. Certain conclusions can be drawn from this election:
* The support of the Malays to UMNO and the National
Front which was taken for granted in the past elections has diminished considerably.
* The power base of UMNO has shifted from the Malay
heartland in the north to the southern states.
* The country has now a viable opposition and that
too Malay-based.
* Dr. Mahathir will not have a smooth sailing, with
two states under opposition rule and with rising Islamic sentiments. The two Pas led
states will try to embarass the centre by selective Islamization. While Mahathir by his
dominating presence can handle any likely confrontation between the states and the centre,
his successor may not be able to do so.
* The Anwar issue has not been capped and the impact
is likely to linger over Malaysian politics for some time.
* The support of the minority groups, especially the
Chinese, has become crucial to the ruling coalition and hence the government may have to
seek a compromise from their hitherto
"Bhumiputra policy".
To the question whether the elections were free and fair - there
is no doubt that it was free. As to the question whether it was fair, except for
preempting the eligible 600,000 young voters, there has been no departure from the pattern
of previous elections. Even on the timing it has always been the
constitutional prerogative of the ruling party to decide the timing of the elections.
This happens in all democratic countries. Though the western countries may
not agree, one cannot but give Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, the longest elected leader of South
East Asia, the credit for the outcome of the election. He has ensured political
stability against all odds.
C.S.Kuppuswamy
9.12.99
