COUNT-DOWN TO INDO-PAK SUMMIT-IV
by B.Raman
Is Pakistan's self-styled President and Chief Executive,
Gen.Pervez Musharraf, Kemal Attaturk, as he imagines himself to be or the
late Gen. Yahya Khan, whose lack of lucidity led Pakistan to division and
disaster, is the question being debated in Pakistan after his
incomprehensible actions of June 20 in humiliating former President
Mohammed Rafique Tarar, a Punjabi, in total disregard of its impact on
Punjabi politicians and military officers, serving and retired.
Even Gen. (retd) Mirza Aslam Beg, the first Mohajir
Chief of the Army Staff under Mrs.Benazir Bhutto and Mr.Nawaz Sharif, has
expressed his unease over the actions of Gen.Musharraf and described them
as possibly taken "under compulsions" without explaining under
whose or what compulsions.
In the face of the widespread unhappiness, particularly
in the Punjab, the General mounted a damage-control exercise on June 23
and received the President of the anti-Nawaz faction of the Pakistan
Muslim League (PML), known as the PML (Like-minded LM), Mian Muhammad
Azhar, to soften the Mian's displeasure over the General's action in
dissolving the National Assembly and the Senate in violation of the
promise made by the General to the Mian on June 11 that he would help the
faction in securing a majority in the two Houses by pressurising the
supporters of Mr.Nawaz Sharif to cross the floor and thereafter invite the
Mian to take over as the Prime Minister.
The General was reported to have denied speculation that
he intended nominating Mr.Shaukat Aziz, the Finance Minister, or Mr.Abdul
Sattar, the Foreign Minister, as the Prime Minister and claimed that he
would continue to function as the Chief Executive too. In order to
keep the anti-Nawaz group allied to him, the General also reportedly
hinted at the possibility of his nominating the Mian as the Prime Minister
after his return from India.
Pakistani observers have described the General's
discussions with the Mian as intended to counter the criticism not only in
the public, but also amongst the Punjabi officers of the Army and the
religious and jihadi parties over his unceremonious sacking of Mr. Tarar,
known to be close to the Punjabi officers and the religious/jihadi
elements.
Unlike Mrs. Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party
(PPP), whose following is confined to Sindh, the North-West Frontier
Province (NWFP) and the Seraiki areas of the Punjab, the PML is
essentially a Punjabi party with many of its leaders and cadres having
relatives serving as commissioned officers in the Army.
The support of at least some sections of the PML is
essential for the General to ensure that the unhappy Punjabi political
leaders and officers do not unite against him. He is, therefore,
keen to keep the anti-Nawaz faction, despite its small strength, on his
side.
After the discussions with the General, the Mian met the
senior members of his faction at the residence of Secretary-General Gohar
Ayub Khan, and briefed them. Amongst those who attended were Syed
Fakhr Imam, Begum Abida Hussain, Col (retd) Ghulam Sarwar Cheema,
Ijaz-ul-Haq, son of the late Gen.Zia-ul-Haq, Lt-Gen (retd) Majeed Malik
and Mansoor Hayat Taman. After the meeting with the
Mian, Gen. Musharraf has invited politicians representing leading
political parties for a consultative meeting on June 27 to discuss his
forthcoming summit with the Indian Prime Minister, Mr.A.B.Vajpayee, and to
evolve a national consensus on what should be his approach during the
summit. The invitees have been told that the discussions would be
strictly confined to the summit and that they would not be allowed to
raise the recent domestic political developments.
Amongst those reportedly invited are: Mr. Farooq
Leghari, former President and the chief of the Millat Party; Mr.Ghulam
Mustafa Jatoi, former Prime Minister and chief of the National People's
Party (NPP); Mr.Wasim Sajjad, ex-Chairman of the Senate (PML); Mr.Illahi
Bux Soomro, ex-Speaker of the National Assembly (PML); Mr.Hamid Nasir
Chattha, chief of the PML (Junejo); Pir Pagaro, President of the PML
(Functional); Mian Muhammad Azhar, chief of the PML (like-minded);
Mr.Aftab Ahmad Shaikh of the MQM; Makhdoom Amin Faheem, senior
Vice-Chairman of the PPP; Mir Hazar Khan Bijarani of the PPP-SB; Nawabzada
Nasrullah Khan, President of the Alliance For the Restoration of Democracy
(ARD); Maulana Shah Ahmad Noorani, chief of the Jamiat-ul-Ulema Pakistan
(JUP); Qazi Hussain Ahmad, chief of the Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI); Maulana
Fazlur Rehman, chief of the Jamiat-ul-Ulema Islam (JUI(F)); Maulana Samiul
Haq, chief of the JUI(S); Dr Tahirul Qadri, chief of the PAT; Allama Sajid
Ali Naqvi, chief of the Tehrik Jaffria Pakistan (TJP); Air Chief Marshal
(retd) Asghar Khan, President of the Tehrik-i-Istaqlal; Mr.Imran Khan,
chief of theTehrik-i-Insaf; Mr.Ajmal Khattak, chief of the NAPP;
Mr.Asfandyar Wali Khan, chief of the Awami National Party (ANP); Mr.Hasil
Bizenjo of the Balochistan National Party (BNP); Dr Abdul Hayee Baloch of
the Balochistan National Movement (BNM) and Fatehyab Ali Khan of the
Mazdoor Kisan Party. After this meeting with the political leaders, the
General intends meeting collectively religious leaders not belonging to
any political party and non-governmental opinion-makers. It is
reported that he also intends having an unannounced meeting with the
office-bearers of the jihadi organisations.
The ARD is to hold a meeting of its constituents on June
26 to decide its response to the invitation. The following different
views presently prevail in the Alliance:
* It should reject the invitation on the ground that it
does not recognise the General as the President of the country.
* It should accept the invitation on condition that
the recent domestic political developments should also be discussed
first before taking up the forthcoming summit.
* It should accept the invitation without conditions
and at the meeting with the General question his sacking of Mr.Tarar
and, if the General rules out a discussion on this, walk out.
* Even if it accepts the invitation, only the
Nawabzada should attend and not the leaders of the other constituent
parties.
The leaders of the PML loyal to Mr.Nawaz Sharif and the
PPP have been saying that whatever be the final decision of the ARD, their
leaders would not attend a meeting convened by an illegally sworn-in
President. Anyhow, the General has not invited any other leader of
the PML except the former Speaker of the National Assembly and the former
Chairman of the Senate, who have been invited by virtue of the offices
held by them before the dissolution of the two Houses on June 20.
Moreover, they have been taking a neutral stand in the factional struggle
by attending the meetings of the PML as well as the PML (LM).
The PML has claimed that the General's
talks with the Indian Prime Minister would be a failure as he lacked
public support. It said: "The Indian Premier enjoys the
confidence of millions of voters while General Musharraf only has the
support of the GHQ. He is in no position to represent
Pakistan. Pakistan has never had an edge over India regarding
defence or influence. We only had the moral edge and have always
been claiming the right of vote for the Kashmiris. When our
representative would not be an elected one, how can he advocate plebiscite
in held Kashmir"?
Talking to pressmen on June 23, the Nawabzada said that
if Gen Musharraf considered himself a valid President, the Constitution
had ceased to exist, but if the Constitution was still in existence, the
General was an illegal head of state. He pointed out that if the
Constitution was still in force as ordered by the Supreme Court while
validating the army coup of October 12,1999, a serving public servant
could not hold the office of President. To qualify as a candidate
for the post of President under the Constitution, the General would have
to resign first from the Army and then wait for at least two years. Under
the Constitution, no public servant can contest for election as the
President within two years of his exit from public service.
Answering a question, the ARD President said Gen Musharraf's visit to
India would fail to produce any results and the optimism being expressed
by him was unjustified.
Meanwhile, in an interview to the CNN before leaving
Washington, the Foreign Minister, Mr. Abdul Sattar, said: " What we
have sought from the United States on the issue of Kashmir is not really a
mediating role, but, on the contrary (we want) the use of influence in
whatever way Washington thinks appropriate to nudge the two sides in
favour of arriving at an initial understanding so that they can move them
in the direction of the settlement that is acceptable to the Kashmiri
people.
"General Musharraf will visit India with an open
mind. President Musharraf will be flexible, but I think people need
to understand the limits of that flexibility and the fact that Kashmir
question involves the life and future of more than 10 million
people. Over the last 12 years more than 75,000 Kashmiris have died
in pursuit of their struggle for freedom. So, they (Kashmiris) have
to be on the centre stage. They have aspirations with regard to
their future. We have to determine the solution that can endure.
"The other things that might come up during the
President's visit to India will depend upon the initiatives by the
Government of India. We have said that we are prepared to discuss
Kashmir and any other issues that India thinks can be discussed at this
time. It is going to be a short visit and there will be an
opportunity for the two sides to meet and then perhaps to agree to
continue this process of dialogue in the months ahead.
"General Musharraf's decision to become President
is largely inspired by domestic considerations. We are in the
process of reconstructing democracy and elections are to be held before
October 12, 2002. The existing assemblies, which were suspended in
October 1999, have been dissolved and this will set the stage for
elections next year."
Talking to pressmen at Lahore on June 17, former
Interior Minister under Mr.Sharif, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, who now
belongs to the PML (LM), said that Pakistan's conventional stance on
Kashmir and the UN resolutions on the issue had not served any purpose and
that, therefore, giving independence to the valley should be actively
considered.
He said that Jammu and Ladakh should be handed over to
India and the valley should be given an independent status, while the
"Azad Kashmir" (POK) should remain with Pakistan. He,
however, clarified that those were his personal views and that if his
party adopted a different line after a debate, he would abide by the
decision.
Mian Azhar has, however, described the Chaudhry's views
as his personal opinion and reiterated the support of his party for the
implementation of the UN resolutions
On June 23, the Pakistan Foreign Office held a
co-ordination meeting to discuss the stand of Pakistan on the
Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline issue during the forthcoming
summit. Amongst those who attended were Secretary Water and Power,
Mr. Mirza Hamid Hassan, senior Joint Secretary, Petroleum and Natural
Resources, Mr.Jehangir Bashar, Pakistan's Commissioner on the Permanent
Indus Water Commission, Syed Jumait Ali Shah, and representatives of the
Ministry of Commerce and Industries.
Mr.Bashar later told pressmen: "We would be quite
happy to discuss the pipeline issue, but we are not aware whether or not
it is on the agenda for the summit."
Amongst other possible summit subjects on which the Foreign Office
proposes to hold similar co-ordination meetings are what has been
described as the proposed construction of a 450MW Baglihar Hydropower
Project on the Chenab by India, the Wullar Barrage on the Jehlum and the
possible purchase of diesel by Islamabad from New Delhi.
Pakistani Foreign Office officials have been saying that
the substantive aspects of the summit would be finalised when Pakistan's
High Commissioner in New Delhi, Mr Jehangir Ashraf Kazi, arrived in
Islamabad in a week's time. However, according to them, both sides
would try to keep the agenda flexible, as being rigid on the Kashmir issue
did not work in the past. They project the summit more as a
brain-storming session between the General and the Indian Prime Minister
to find ways of keeping the bilateral dialogue on the Kashmir issue
sustained in a positive and constructive direction with which both sides
are comfortable than as a formal negotiation on the Kashmir issue. They
rule out the preparation in advance by the officials of the two countries
of the drafts of any joint communique or declaration similar to the Lahore
Declaration and say that this would actually depend upon the results of
the meetings between the two leaders. The drafting of any such documents
would be done only if warranted by the outcome of the discussions.
Pakistani Foreign Office officials have been quoted as
saying as follows: "Everything would be subject to the progress at
the summit. Let us see how the leaders click with each other and
what kind of chemistry they manage to establish in the course of their
dialogue. In a summit like this, particularly involving India and
Pakistan, you cannot expect a pre-determined format."
They have also been hinting that the Hurriyat leaders
might be invited to a reception being hosted by the Pakistan High
Commissioner in honour of the General.
There has been speculation in circles close to the
Pakistan Foreign Office that the General has been handling all matters
pertaining to the summit directly with Mr.Kazi, the High Commissioner,
through Maj.Gen. (retd) Mahmud Ali Durrani, former station chief of the
Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in Washington and an active member of
the Belusa group of Mrs. Shirin Tahir Kheli, without keeping Mr.Sattar in
the picture and that this is another reason for the unhappiness of
Mr.Sattar as reflected in his hardline statements.
It is speculated in Islamabad that when the Indian
Government made its first statement on May 26 about its decision to invite
the General, Mr.Kazi was already aware in advance of the impending change
in the Indian position of no talks with the General till Pakistan stopped
support to cross-border terrorism and that was why, on the basis of prior
instructions from Maj.Gen.Durrani without the knowledge of Mr.Sattar, he
welcomed the Indian decision immediately without consulting his Foreign
Office.
After seizing power in October, 1999, Gen.Musharraf had
recalled to Islamabad all political appointees of Mr.Sharif heading
Pakistani diplomatic missions abroad. The only Head of Mission not
recalled was Mr.Kazi, despite his known proximity to Mr.Sharif and the
controversial role allegedly played by him in having Mr.Najam Sethi, the
Editor of the "Friday Times", arrested and harassed by the
Punjab Police for making at the India International Centre, New Delhi, a
speech critical of Mr.Sharif.
As pointed out by this writer in a paper disseminated
after the coup, well-informed Pakistani observers considered this very
significant and interpreted this as indicative of the desire of the
General to use Mr.Kazi, stated to be a Balochi, to build bridges of
informal contact with the Indian leadership and bureaucracy. The
General reportedly felt that unlike a Punjabi, a Balochi or a Sindhi would
have greater access to official and non-official circles in New Delhi and
could, therefore, play a more useful role in arranging a summit.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet
Secretariat, Govt. of India, and, presently, Director, Institute for
Topical Studies, Chennai. E-Mail: corde@vsnl.com
)
