South Asia Analysis Group 


Paper no.276

10. 07. 2001

  

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SUMMIT: Sattar takes charge

by B.Raman

It is clear like daylight now.

Agra is not going to be the Pervez Musharraf Show.

It is going to be the Pervez-Sattar show.

Or, rather the Sattar show, with Abdul Sattar, Pakistan's Foreign Minister, from behind the scene, deciding what subjects Pervez will raise, what he will say, how and so on.

See the pre-summit preparations before Sattar returned from abroad and after.

Analyse Musharraf's demeanour and remarks before Sattar's return and after.

See the dramatis personae before and after.

See Ashraf Jehangir Qazi, the Pakistani High Commissioner, before he went to Islamabad for consultations and after his return to New Delhi.  Before he went, he was the very picture of reason, moderation, the epitome of diplomatic courtesy, who was all attention to the sensitivities of the host country and full of enthusiasm about the prospects at Agra.

And then, one session with Sattar at Islamabad; he has come back a totally chastened man.  While talking to Star News on his Tea Party, the perennial cheer on his face had disappeared.  How carefully he was weighing his words as if Sattar was standing behind him.

Maj.Gen.( retd)Mahmud Ali Durrani, the former Washington Station chief of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and an active member of the Belusa group of Mrs.Shirin Tahir-Kheli, is out.

So is Lt.Gen.(retd) Moinuddin Haider, the Mohajir Interior Minister, whom Nawaz Sharif described in his secret testimony in the hijacking case as Musharraf's alter ego and as one of the two persons with whom Musharraf felt comfortable and had social relations, the other being Maj.Gen.Rasheed Quereshi, the General's press spokesman, another Mohajir.

And so is Lt.Gen.Muzaffar Usmani, the Deputy Chief of the Army Staff, another Mohajir, who led the coup from Karachi-end on October 12,1999, and ensured the safety of Musharraf.

No Shaukat Aziz, the Finance Minister, who is close to Musharraf's US-based brother, no Abdul Razaak Dawood, the Commerce Minister, no Usman Aminuddin, the Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources.

On the aircraft, it will be just Musharraf plus Sattar and the bureaucrats hand-picked by Sattar.

How drastically the likely subjects list has been pruned by Sattar.

Trade? No.

Gas pipeline? No.

Nuclear confidence-building measures? No.

Cross-border terrorism? No.

People-To-People contact? No.

Meeting of the Directors-General of Military Operations before the summit as proposed by the Indian Prime Minister? No.

Response to India's flood of unilateral confidence-building measures and suggestions? Not necessary.

Sattar wants the summit to be Kashmir, Kashmir and Kashmir.  About five hours of nothing but Kashmir.

He wants Musharraf's pantomime with the Hurriyat surrogates to be telecast back to Pakistan.  And beamed to the world to claim that the Kashmiris have more confidence in the General than in the Indian Prime Minister.

He has reportedly thrown into the waste paper basket the initial draft of Musharraf's speech at the Presidential banquet on July 14 prepared by Qazi and is attempting his own.

It is the perennial "no man" of Pakistan's Foreign Office, who has taken charge from Durrani, supported by Lt.Gen.Mohammed Aziz, the Corps Commander at Lahore.

The source of Sattar's power in and out of office has always been mysterious.

Remember how he poured scorn in a press interview on Nawaz Sharf's meeting with Mr.Narasimha Rao in Davos?

Remember how he thwarted in 1995 Mrs.Benazir Bhutto's initiative to grant India the Most-Favoured-Nation status by mobilising the support of all retired Directors-General of the ISI and other military officers against it.

He is back in his game with a vengeance.

How come he is one man in the entire Cabinet, who is able to stand up to Musharraf , despite his uniform, despite his commando badge?

Is it only because of the support of just one Lt.Gen.?

But, that Lt.Gen. is no small man.  Musharraf may be the Chief of the Army of the State of Pakistan, but Aziz is the clandestine chief of Pakistan's Army of Islam, consisting of the Lashkar-e-Toiba, the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, the Al Badr, the Jaish-e-Mohammed and bin Laden's Al Qaeda.  Numerically, the Army of Islam is as strong as the Army of the State. And better motivated and more ruthless.

Are other non-Mohajir Generals too supporting Aziz? Did they have any role to play in removing from Musharraf's Agra entourage all Mohajirs except Maj.Gen.Rasheed Quereshi?

Or, did Musharraf ask Lt.Gen.Haider and other confidantes to stay behind and ensure that nobody, in his absence, takes it into his head to emulate Nawaz and sack him while he is wallowing in the lionisation in New Delhi and Agra?

The incident of yesterday in Islamabad in which a car driven by one Abdul Hafeez tried to drive into Musharraf's convoy--- was it just an accident or the doing of a mad man, who was not aware that the targetted convoy was that of Musharraf as claimed by the Islamabad Police or was it a well-planned attempt on the life of Musharraf?

So many intriguing questions without answers.

All one can say is, there's something more than meets the eye in Islamabad. 

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, and presently, Director, Institute For Topical studies, Chennai. E-Mail: corde@vsnl.com )

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